VINAGRI News - China is projected to overtake Vietnam as the world's second-largest rice importer, with USDA forecasting imports of 4.3 million tonnes in 2026, up 400,000 tonnes from its previous estimate. The increase comes as China expands purchases to replenish its large rice reserves and meet growing demand for feed, while the country is also expected to export around 2.1 million tonnes of rice this year.
Summary:
> China is forecast to import 4.3 million tonnes of rice, overtaking Vietnam to become the world's No. 2 rice importer after the Philippines.
> China holds an estimated 110 million tonnes of rice reserves, accounting for about 40% of global stocks.
> Thailand has agreed to supply China with 1.22 million tonnes of rice in 2026, with 720,000 tonnes already delivered.
> China is also expected to export around 2.1 million tonnes of rice in 2026, mainly to African markets.
China set to overtake Vietnam as world’s second-largest rice importer
China is set to overtake Vietnam as the world's second-largest rice importer, according to the latest forecast from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In its August market report, the USDA raised its forecast for China's rice imports to 4.3 million tonnes, an increase of 400,000 tonnes from its previous estimate. The higher demand is reportedly expected to come partly from the feed sector, with low-grade rice from India among the typical sources.
The USDA expects China's rice imports to remain at around the same level in 2027. At 4.3 million tonnes, China would move ahead of Vietnam and rank second globally behind the Philippines.
China imports rice despite massive domestic reserves
China's rising rice imports are not primarily driven by a shortage of domestic supplies.
The country is estimated to hold the largest rice reserves in the world, at around 110 million tonnes, equivalent to roughly 40% of global rice stocks.
China has adopted a flexible approach to rice imports and exports, allowing it to adjust trade flows according to domestic and international market conditions.
During the global rice price surge in 2023-2024, driven partly by El Niño-related supply concerns, China's large reserves allowed the country to limit imports while maintaining relatively low domestic rice prices and containing inflationary pressure.
Since late 2025, however, global rice prices have fallen sharply. China has subsequently increased imports, taking advantage of lower international prices to replenish its reserves.
China remains a major buyer of Vietnamese rice
China has also become an increasingly important destination for Vietnamese rice exports.
During the first seven months of 2026, Vietnam exported 5.5 million tonnes of rice, with China ranking as the country's second-largest buyer, accounting for nearly 20% of total exports, or more than 1 million tonnes.
China also recorded the fastest growth among Vietnam's major rice export markets, with purchases roughly doubling from the same period in 2025.
The development highlights China's growing influence in the regional rice trade, particularly as Vietnamese exporters face changing demand patterns in traditional markets.
Vietnam's rice imports decline
The latest USDA forecast represents a significant change from its earlier outlook.
At the beginning of the year, the USDA had projected Vietnam to become the world's second-largest rice importer. However, Vietnam's rice imports reached approximately 2.8 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, down nearly 15% from the same period last year.
The decline in Vietnam's imports has contributed to China's expected rise in the global rankings.
China expands rice deal with Thailand
China's growing import demand is also reflected in its government-to-government rice trade with Thailand.
According to Thai media reports, China signed a G2G agreement with Thailand last year covering 500,000 tonnes of rice. More recently, the two countries expanded their arrangement to 1.22 million tonnes for 2026.
Thailand has so far delivered 720,000 tonnes to China under the agreement.
The expanded deal provides Thailand with a significant export outlet while reinforcing China's role as a major buyer in the Asian rice market.
China also exports rice to Africa
China's role in the global rice market is not limited to imports and stockpiling.
The USDA forecasts that China will export around 2.1 million tonnes of rice in 2026, an increase of 200,000 tonnes from its previous estimate. African countries are expected to be among the major destinations.
This highlights the strategic role of China's rice reserves. The country can increase imports when international prices are attractive, build up stocks and subsequently release rice into overseas markets when commercial opportunities arise.
China's emergence as the world's second-largest rice importer therefore reflects not simply domestic consumption needs, but also a broader strategy combining food-security reserves, flexible trade flows and participation in the international rice market.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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