VINAGRI News - Vietnam exported more than 1 million tons of coffee during the first half of 2026, generating nearly US$4.8 billion in revenue. While export volumes increased, lower global coffee prices caused export earnings to decline significantly compared with the same period last year.
Summary:
> Vietnam exported over 1 million tons of coffee in H1 2026, with export value falling 14% year-on-year.
> Robusta remained the dominant export product, while processed coffee continued to record positive growth.
> Concerns over Brazil's coffee harvest supported a recovery in global coffee prices in late July.
> Coffee exports to China surged, while Vietnam expanded market share in both the EU and the United States.
Vietnam's coffee export paradox: Higher volumes, lower revenue
Vietnam exported more than 1 million tons of coffee during the first half of 2026, generating nearly US$4.8 billion in export revenue. Although shipment volumes increased, export earnings declined sharply compared with the same period in 2025 due to falling coffee prices.
According to data from the Vietnam Customs Department, coffee exports in the second quarter of 2026 totaled 463,700 metric tons, worth more than US$2 billion, representing declines of 22% in volume and 25% in value compared with the first quarter.
Overall, coffee exports in the first six months reached over 1 million tons, up 7% year-on-year in volume but down 14% in export value.
Robusta remains Vietnam's main export product
Robusta continued to dominate Vietnam's coffee exports, accounting for 883,100 tons worth approximately US$3.5 billion. Export volume increased by 8% from a year earlier, while export value declined by 19% due to lower prices.
Arabica exports reached 59,500 tons valued at US$371.9 million, up 5% in volume with export value slipping only 1% year-on-year.
Processed coffee maintained strong momentum, generating US$910.8 million in export revenue, an increase of 5% compared with the first half of 2025. Although still representing a relatively small segment, exports of Excelsa coffee rose sharply to 795 tons worth US$3.5 million, up nearly 79% in volume and more than 40% in value.
Overall, Vietnam's processed coffee exports generated nearly US$911 million during the first half of the year, reflecting continued progress in value-added coffee products.
Brazil supply concerns lift global coffee prices
According to Vietnam's Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, global coffee prices strengthened again toward the end of July, primarily driven by supply concerns in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter.
Unseasonal heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica-producing region, disrupted harvesting and drying operations while affecting bean quality. Market monitoring organizations estimated that Brazil's coffee harvest had reached only about 64% by mid-July, well below 77% recorded during the same period last year and beneath the five-year average of 70%. As a result, new-crop supplies entered the market more slowly than expected.
At the same time, certified Arabica coffee inventories on the ICE exchange fell to just 292,810 bags on July 27, the lowest level in more than two years. In addition, global Arabica coffee exports during the 12 months ending in May 2026 declined by approximately 3 million bags compared with the previous marketing year, indicating continued tight availability.
Brazil's Coffee Industry Association also warned that adverse weather conditions could reduce actual production by 15-20% below initial forecasts.
These supply concerns pushed Arabica futures sharply higher on international exchanges while also supporting Robusta prices. However, gains in Robusta remained relatively limited as the market anticipated improved supplies from Vietnam's upcoming harvest.
By the end of July, September and November Robusta futures on the London exchange had risen 6% and 6.8%, respectively, to US$3,877 and US$3,859 per metric ton. Meanwhile, Arabica futures on the New York exchange posted stronger gains, with the September contract reaching 339.4 US cents per pound, up 14.5%, while the December contract climbed 12.5% to 317.3 US cents per pound.
Domestic coffee prices rally
The recovery in international coffee prices quickly translated into higher domestic prices.
Toward the end of July 2026, domestic Robusta prices increased as available supplies tightened due to declining inventories, while farmers and traders held back sales in anticipation of further price gains.
Higher global coffee prices, driven by concerns over harvest progress and export availability in major producing countries - particularly Brazil - also provided support to Vietnam's domestic market.
Strong buying demand from exporters combined with limited supplies pushed coffee prices sharply higher. On July 29, Robusta prices in Vietnam's Central Highlands, including Dak Lak and Lam Dong provinces, were 7,800 - 8,000 Vietnamese dong per kilogram higher than at the beginning of July.
Coffee exports to China continue strong growth
During the first months of 2026, coffee imports by several major markets, including the European Union, the United States, Japan, and South Korea, generally softened, while demand from China continued to expand.
According to Eurostat, coffee imports by the European Union - the world's largest coffee importing market - totaled nearly €10 billion (approximately US$11.4 billion) during the first four months of 2026, an increase of 6% from a year earlier. Imports from Vietnam rose 22%, lifting Vietnam's market share from 10.4% to 12%.
In the United States, total coffee imports reached US$5.07 billion during the first five months of the year, down 10% year-on-year. Imports from Vietnam declined by 3% to US$288.6 million. Nevertheless, Vietnam's market share increased from 5.3% to 5.7%.
China remained the fastest-growing destination. During the first five months of 2026, China's coffee imports from Vietnam reached US$99.6 million, an increase of 87% compared with the same period last year. Vietnam's share of China's coffee imports also expanded significantly, rising from 8.8% to 15.3%.
In contrast, Japan imported US$198.7 million worth of Vietnamese coffee during the first five months of the year, down 13% year-on-year. Vietnam's market share in Japan also declined from 24.6% to 20.1% over the same period.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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