Global robusta coffee prices rebound as ICE inventories drop to multi - month lows

VINAGRI News - Robusta futures on the London exchange recovered slightly on December 9, while domestic prices in Vietnam rose by 200 - 300 VND/kg. ICE inventories remain near multi-month lows, supporting expectations that London robusta prices on December 10 may edge higher or trade sideways.

Summary:

> Robusta March 2026 settled at USD 4,109/ton, up 0.42%.

> Vietnam domestic prices rose to 100,700 - 101,600 VND/kg.

> Domestic - futures gap: 7,100 VND/kg (≈ USD 269/ton).

> ICE inventories remain near multi-month lows for both arabica and robusta.

> Outlook for Dec 10: Sideways to slightly higher, driven by tight supply concerns.

At the close of Tuesday’s session (December 9), online robusta coffee prices on the London ICE exchange posted a mild recovery. The March 2026 contract rose to USD 4,109/ton, up 0.42% (+USD 17/ton) from the previous session. Other maturities also recorded slight increases, with the January 2026 contract up 0.24% (+USD 10/ton) to USD 4,228/ton.

Converted to Vietnamese dong using the current exchange rate of 1 USD = 26,365.50 VND, the March 2026 robusta contract is equivalent to 108,300 VND/kg.

In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, robusta prices on the morning of December 10 increased by 200 - 300 VND/kg, reaching 100,700 - 101,600 VND/kg. With an average price of 101,200 VND/kg, domestic robusta remains 7,100 VND/kg lower than the March 2026 London futures price - a gap equivalent to approximately USD 269/ton.

ICE-monitored arabica inventories recently hit a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, before rebounding to a one-month high of 426,523 bags last Friday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta stocks fell to 4,018 lots as of Tuesday - the lowest level in 11.5 months.

Looking ahead, robusta prices on the London ICE exchange are likely to edge higher or trade sideways during the December 10 session, particularly in the absence of negative supply-side developments. The upward trend could strengthen if concerns about tight supplies, low inventories, and firm demand from roasters persist.

The March 2026 robusta contract is expected to range between USD 4,110 - 4,180/ton.

NPK/ Vinagri News