VINAGRI News - The Philippines’ decision to keep its rice market open to imports throughout 2026, together with Vietnam’s call for a floor price for paddy purchases and rice exports, is reshaping expectations in the regional rice market. Domestic Vietnamese paddy prices have edged lower, while export prices remain relatively stable as buyers in the Philippines, Africa and China maintain purchases amid rising supply from the summer-autumn harvest.
Summary:
> Vietnamese domestic paddy prices have fallen by VND100 - 150/kg.
> Fresh long-grain fragrant paddy is currently priced at around VND6,600 - 6,850/kg, while ordinary paddy is at VND6,300 - 6,400/kg.
> Vietnam’s 5% broken fragrant rice is quoted at around $520/ton, while Jasmine rice is around $545/ton.
> The Philippines plans to keep its rice import market open throughout 2026.
> By the end of July, the Philippines had imported 3.27 million tonnes of rice, up 27% year on year.
> Vietnam remained the Philippines’ dominant supplier, accounting for 2.53 million tonnes, or 77% of total imports.
> The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) has called for a VND7,000/kg floor price for fragrant paddy and an export floor price of $500/ton.
> USDA forecasts the Philippines will remain the world's largest rice importer in 2026 and 2027, with imports of about 5.6 million tonnes annually.
Vietnamese rice market edges lower as Philippines opens imports
Vietnam’s domestic rice market has remained under pressure following the Philippines’ announcement that it will keep its rice import market open throughout 2026. At the same time, the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) has called on businesses to help maintain paddy prices for farmers and establish a floor price for rice exports.
According to a market survey by Thanh Nien Newspaper, domestic paddy prices have generally declined by VND100 - 150 per kilogram. Fresh long-grain fragrant paddy is currently trading at around VND6,600 - 6,850/kg at the farm level, while ordinary paddy is priced at approximately VND6,300 - 6,400/kg, depending on quality and location.
Export prices, meanwhile, have shown relatively little movement. Vietnam’s 5% broken fragrant rice is currently quoted at around $520 per ton, while Jasmine rice is priced at approximately $545 per ton.
Philippine market remains a key focus
From Vietnam’s Mekong Delta rice-producing region, Nguyen Vinh Trong, director of Viet Hung Co., Ltd. in Dong Thap province, said price competition in the rice market remains intense.
The Philippines announced earlier this month that it would allow rice imports throughout 2026 to strengthen food security amid the risk of a severe El Niño. However, the country has yet to issue new SPS import permits for fragrant rice, meaning Vietnamese exporters have not secured new orders for this segment.
While waiting for the new permits, Philippine importers are focusing on Japanese varieties, particularly Japonica rice, as well as glutinous rice.
Meanwhile, buyers in Africa and China continue to purchase at roughly their previous pace rather than significantly increasing orders, as Vietnam has entered the summer-autumn rice harvest, resulting in greater domestic supply.
“Production costs have increased this year while yields have declined, so the VFA’s call for businesses to maintain floor prices for farmers’ paddy and for export rice is reasonable,” Trong said. “Only when production and business operations are profitable can the industry be maintained and developed.”
Businesses call for support as El Niño risks grow
Many companies in the rice industry share the view that the impact of El Niño could become significant for global rice and food supplies in the coming period. They argue that domestic production needs to be protected through reasonable prices that ensure both farmers and businesses can remain profitable.
To achieve this, businesses also need access to working capital at favorable interest rates so they can purchase paddy from farmers while maintaining a viable floor price for export sales.
Against the backdrop of potentially tighter domestic supply and stronger global demand as countries prepare for El Niño-related risks, the VFA has called on businesses to support farmers by maintaining a minimum purchase price of VND7,000/kg for fragrant paddy. The association has also called for an export floor price of at least $500 per ton for rice.
Philippines imports 3.27 million tonnes of rice
The Philippines remains the most important market for Vietnamese rice. By the end of July, the country had imported 3.27 million tonnes of rice, an increase of approximately 650,000 tonnes, or 27%, from the same period last year.
Although the Philippines is seeking to diversify its sources by increasing purchases from other suppliers, Vietnam continues to dominate the market.
Thailand supplied 343,227 tonnes, Myanmar 233,922 tonnes, Cambodia 80,678 tonnes, and Pakistan 68,313 tonnes. Vietnam, however, supplied approximately 2.53 million tonnes, accounting for 77% of the Philippines’ total rice imports.
The Philippines’ Department of Agriculture has also forecast that domestic rice production could decline by as much as 750,000 tonnes, 50,000 tonnes more than its initial estimates.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that the Philippines will remain the world’s largest rice importer in both 2026 and 2027, with imports of approximately 5.6 million tonnes per year.
The combination of continued Philippine import demand, potential El Niño-related supply risks and Vietnam’s efforts to establish a more stable price structure could therefore become increasingly important for the direction of the regional rice market in the months ahead.
NPK/ Vinagri News
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